Outside of a mid-April snow storm, it's been a very dry spring. And that's just a continuation of the way things have been since the fall of 2019.

This past winter was the sixth driest Estevan has seen, as far as Environment Canada's records go, and the previous winter ranked No. 1 for dryness. (Environment Canada considers winter to be December, January, and February.)

But the lack of moisture isn't limited to the coldest months of the year.

"One thing I will say about the Estevan area, it's not just about how dry it's been over the winter. It's been dry this spring, and it was dry through the fall, and it was dry through last summer," said Environment Canada Warning Preparedness Meteorologist Terri Lang. "So it's been building for a long time. So when you have that much of a deficit of precipitation, it's going to take a long time to build it back up again. It's not something that's just a couple-months thing. It's been building for a very long time."

Lang said longer-range forecasts aren't very accurate, especially for predicting how much rain or snow will fall. But the trends they see are suggesting more of the same for the coming months.

"Right now we're looking May, June, July, and that's looking drier than average as well."

We've moved out of the La Nina system that was present during this past winter. The winter was supposed to be wet and cold, but it was milder and dry. Now there's no El Nino or La Nina, which makes it harder to predict.

"What the El Nino and the La Nina do is, when there's an event going on, it tends to sort of dictate what the jet stream is going to do. And the jet stream is where the low-pressure systems that give us rain and snow travel along. So if it's to the north of us it's warm and dry. To the south it's colder and can be drier as well. If it's right over top of us we tend to get more precipitation."

Lang said moisture typically leads to more moisture, which doesn't bode well for those doing a rain dance.

"When the crops green up, they give off a tremendous amount of moisture. And those fuel more storms, which give more moisture. But if we're starting off dry, that initial moisture isn't there to fuel further storms. So you would have to keep an eye on it and see how this spring does unfold. We will get those rains coming through, but the forecast so far is for it to be drier than average."

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