As southwest floods, what's the outlook for the southeast?

As major flooding continues in the Swift Current region, southeast residents might be wondering whether mother nature will bring similar problems to their area.

Rest assured, Water Security Agency Spokesperson Patrick Boyle said Thursday that the outlook for the southeast is much different, with a lower risk of flooding.

"Runoff in the southeast is in those early stages in most places," Boyle said. "Based on the current conditions right now we're not expecting Rafferty (Dam) reservoir to reach its full supply level. We're certainly watching that situation, but really not expecting a lot of issues in the southeast area in comparison to the quick melt we saw in the southwest."

"The southeast is a little different scenario...it still has a significant snowpack and it's coming off a little bit slower. Temperatures are cooling a little bit over the next day or so here, and then we'll heat up again. But we really look for that plus five-minus 5 swing for that nice slow gradual melt."

Boyle added that rain can also impact the spring melt. Estevan could get up to 5 millimetres of rain on Thursday with more in the forecast for Friday.

"Rain can speed up that runoff certainly, it makes water move a little bit quicker. And as temperatures get above zero for a longer period of time in the spring, we really start to focus on those rainfall events and start to look at those localized issues," he said.

"We've seen those in the Estevan area the last few years where it's really a localized and heavy intensity of rainfall, and we'll start to look at those spring rains here as that snow comes off. Not expecting a whole lot in the forecast right now based on looking at the models going forward."

Boyle said the greater concern for the southeast right now is the threat of ice jamming.

"If those temperatures turn, and we see some things melt and there's significant ice cover still but also flow coming...then we'd be concerned about a potential ice jam," Boyle said.

"Ice jams do two different things. One they create a dam and they'll back flood upstream, but then when that releases there's a surge that goes through and it can flood downstream, so you're dealing with two different fronts there. But right now, we're not concerned about the southeast in general based on the snowpack, but the ice jamming could be a potential issue as we go forward."

Boyle also commented on what the spring runoff outlook means for farmers.

"I think a lot of producers in general are looking for more moisture as things go forward here, and hopefully getting a lot of that ground thawed and some infiltration into the soil moving forward," he said. "But I think a lot would probably not disagree with a few spring rains in advance of seeding."